Against the Gods

Against the Gods

The Remarkable Story of Risk

Bernstein, Peter L.

John Wiley and Sons Ltd






15 a 20 dias

Risk is one of the fundamental features of human existence, as all decision makers employ it in one form or another. The revolutionary idea that defines the boundary between modern times and the rest of history is the notion that the future is more than just the whim of the gods-that men and women are not simply passive before nature.
Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 TO 1200: BEGINNINGS 1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Roleof the Dice 11 2. As Easy as I, II, III 23 1200 1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS 3. The Renaissance Gambler 39 4. The French Connection 57 5. The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man 73 1700 1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED 6. Considering the Nature of Man 99 7. The Search for Moral Certainty 116 8. The Supreme Law of Unreason 135 9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152 10. Peapods and Perils 172 11. The Fabric of Felicity 187 1900 1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION 12. The Measure of Our Ignorance 197 13. The Radically Distinct Notion 215 14. The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories 231 15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247 DEGREES OF BELIEF:EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY 16. The Failure of Invariance 269 17. The Theory Police 284 18. The Fantastic System of Side Bets 304 19. Awaiting the Wildness 329 Notes 339 Bibliography 353 Name Index 365 Subject Index 369
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